The Markets – September 2, 2025

Will the bull market in stocks continue?

There is always a diversity of opinion about whether stocks are headed higher or lower. Last week, investors were feeling more bearish than bullish about where the stock market may be headed over the next six months. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed:

While investors who participated in the survey were leaning toward pessimism, some economists and analysts had a sunnier view of what might be ahead. They were optimistic about:

Strong company performance. Profits for companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have been growing steadily. From April through June of this year, earnings grew by about 11.9 percent. It was the third consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In addition, analysts increased their estimates for earnings of S&P 500 companies over the July through September quarter, according to John Butters of FactSet.

Solid consumer spending. The primary driver of the United States economy is consumer spending. Last week, data showed consumer spending rising. “Inflation ticked up slightly in July, but that didn’t stop shoppers from opening their wallets. Consumer spending grew by 0.3 [percent] last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday, the strongest gain in four months. The increase, fueled by rising compensation, shows households are still willing to spend even as inflation remains elevated,” reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.

In addition, some Americans may find their wallets are a little fatter next year when tax refunds are issued. In August, “…the IRS announced that, as part of its phased implementation of the OBBBA [One Big Beautiful Bill Act], it would not be adjusting W2 or 1099 forms for the current calendar year…This seemingly innocuous statement confirms that we will see an even larger crop of personal income tax refunds early in 2026 than was anticipated when the OBBBA was passed. These higher income tax refunds should work much like a new round of stimulus checks, adding to consumer demand and inflation pressures early next year,” wrote economist David Kelly.

Lower borrowing rates. Many on Wall Street are optimistic the Federal Reserve will begin to lower the federal funds rate in September. Major financial firms “…now expect a 25-basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September following Chair Jerome Powell’s shift in tone at Jackson Hole toward rising risks in the labor market,” reported Rashika Singh of Reuters.

It is impossible to know how the stock market will perform over the short term. That’s why it’s important to hold different types of investments in various asset class. Holding a well-allocated and diversified portfolio helps investors manage risk while pursuing financial goals.

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower.  U.S. Treasuries rallied as yields declined on all but the longest maturities of Treasuries.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

WHAT’S THE SECOND BIGGEST SPORTS LEAGUE IN THE WORLD? The National Football League is #1, but who is #2? Here’s a hint: it’s not Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, or the English Premier League (soccer). With $19 billion in revenue, the answer is the National College Athletic Association (NCAA), stated The Economist.

“Hidden behind the pageantry of marching bands, fight songs and century-old rivalries with names like ‘the Backyard Brawl’ lies what is, in effect, the second-biggest sports league in the world (after the NFL)…In 2024 college sport generated twice as much revenue as the English Premier League. Nearly all that came from American football and men’s basketball. For decades the system was lucrative because the labor was free.”

The economics of college sports is changing again this year.

Over the last few years, college athletes had the right to profit from their names, images and likenesses (NIL). For example, it’s estimated that Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning had NIL deals worth $6.8 million, while Livvy Dunne, a gymnast at Louisiana State University, had NIL earnings worth an estimated $4.1 million, according to Nate Cunningham of Sports Illustrated. (Until recently, college athletes gave up their NIL rights when they signed with a college sports team.)

This year, colleges and universities will begin paying their athletes directly. As of July 1, 2025, institutions of higher learning are allowed – but not required – to spend about $20.5 million on athletes, reported Dan Murphy of ESPN. That amount is expected to grow.

“This new era will force athletic-department heads to act more like portfolio managers, balancing returns across a basket of sports. Many have indicated that they will mirror the recent federal court settlement. It allotted three-quarters of retroactive compensation to former football players, 15% to men’s basketball, 5 [percent] to women’s basketball and 5 [percent] to the rest,” reported The Economist.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“A teacher told my mother that I would never become successful, which illustrates the difficulty of long-run forecasting on inadequate data.”

– Clive Granger, Nobel Prize-winning econometrician

Warm regards,

Daniel J. Murphy, CFP®
Murphy Wealth Management Group
60 Merritt Blvd., Suite 106
Fishkill, NY 12524

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