The Markets – September 30, 2025

The economy is all right.

Last week, revised economic figures showed the United States economy grew faster from April through June than previously thought. The upward revision was primarily due to a revised estimate for consumer spending over the period, according to Connor Smith of Barron’s.

“American consumers, the engine of the world’s largest economy, have remained resilient in the face of tariffs and economic uncertainty…The continued strength in spending, which has defied worries about a slowdown, is in contrast to recent data showing a weakening labor market…But initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week to their lowest level since July…in a sign that the jobs market might not be in as dire shape as other data have suggested,” reported Danielle Kay of the BBC.

The contrast between consumer spending and consumer sentiment was striking. Consumer sentiment moved lower again in September and is down more than 21 percent this year, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey.

“Nationally, not only did macroeconomic expectations fall, particularly for labor markets and business conditions, but personal expectations did as well, with a softening outlook for [consumers’] own incomes and personal finances. Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44 [percent] spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year,” wrote Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

The inflation picture did not improve in August. Prices, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, were up 2.7 percent year over year. When volatile food and energy prices were excluded, prices rose 2.9 percent year over year. Both measures are well above the Federal Reserve’s two percent inflation target.

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes rallied on Friday, but were not able to recoup losses from earlier in the week, reported Sean Conlon of CNBC. Yields moved higher over the week for all but the longest maturities of U.S. Treasuries.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

IT’S NOT THE NOBEL PRIZE. “Many scientists dream of winning a Nobel Prize, an accolade that brings worldwide recognition, prestige and a place in the pantheon of greatness alongside the likes of Albert Einstein, Marie Curie and Francis Crick. Then there are the other awards — the Ig Nobel prizes, which were devised to highlight research that makes people laugh, then think,” reported Chris Simms in the journal Nature.

The 35th First Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony took place in mid-September. This year’s awards included:

• Peace Prize. Fritz Renner, Inge Kersbergen, Matt Field, and Jessica Werthmann were recognized for investigating the effects of alcohol consumption on foreign language pronunciation among people who have just learned a language. Turns out, having a few drinks improves the foreign language skills of some people – but not their ability to self-rate their skills. The data were published in Dutch Courage? Effects of Acute Alcohol Consumption on Self-Ratings and Observer Ratings of Foreign Language Skills.
• Biology Prize. “Biting flies are the most damaging arthropod pests of cattle worldwide and the economic impact of biting flies on the United States cattle production was estimated at [$2.211 billion] per year,” according to a team of researchers in Japan who studied ways to address the issue. They found that disguising cows as zebras – by painting them with black and white stripes – greatly reduced the number of fly bites.
• Engineering Design Prize. Vikash Kumar and Sarthak Mittal took home an Ig for their paper titled, Smelly Shoes – An Opportunity for Shoe Rack Re-Design. The pair explored how stinky shoes affect owner satisfaction with shoe racks in India. They concluded there is market potential for a new type of device with a built-in deodorizer.
• Physics Prize. Cacio e pepe is one of those deceptively simple Italian sauces that can be quite challenging to prepare. Researchers from Spain, Italy, Germany, and Austria studied the cooking process to develop a scientific recipe. They explained, “A true Italian grandmother or a skilled home chef from Rome would never need a scientific recipe for Cacio e pepe, relying instead on instinct and years of experience. For everyone else, this guide offers a practical way to master the dish.” The recipe can be found in the paper, Phase behavior of Cacio e pepe sauce.

Prizes also were awarded in the fields of literature, psychology, nutrition, pediatrics, chemistry, and aviation.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“The ‘silly’ question is the first intimation of some totally new development.”

– Alfred Whitehead, Mathematician and philosopher

Warm regards,

Daniel J. Murphy, CFP®
Murphy Wealth Management Group
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Fishkill, NY 12524

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