The Markets – June 1, 2026

It was a record-setting month.

“Sell in May and Go Away” was an investment strategy promoted by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The idea was based on historic research that suggested holding stocks, as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), from November to April delivered better returns than holding stocks all year round.

“What [the research] didn’t note is that if one used the S&P 500 index, which dates to 1927, one would have found the opposite: the summers almost always outperformed the winters,” reported Troy Segal of Investopedia.

This year, most investors were happy with stock performance in May as the United States delivered one of the strongest monthly performances on record. Martin Baccardax of Barron’s explained, “The S&P 500…was on pace to power more than 5 [percent] higher…marking one of the best performances in May since the 1950s, on the back of surging chip and tech stocks that have carried markets through the worst of the U.S. war with Iran.”

However, the performance comes with an important caveat. Market breadth – the number of stocks participating in the rally – was low. A source cited by Connor Smith of Barron’s stated:

“While the overall market is at all-time peaks, only two of the eleven sectors have managed to reach that status…It is a very rare situation indeed to be talking about a stock market at record highs at the same time that the Financials, of all sectors, are very nearly in correction mode (down nearly -10 [percent] from the record highs).”

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes finished the month at record highs amid strong company earnings reports and hopes for peace between the U.S. and Iran, reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s. Yields on intermediate- and longer-term maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

WHAT’S THE RIGHT WITHDRAWAL RATE IN RETIREMENT?  One of the most common questions in retirement planning is also one of the most difficult to answer: How much can I safely withdraw from my portfolio each year? Many people hope for a simple answer, a percentage that will work for everyone, but different people have different needs.

The answer may be found between 3.9 percent and 5.7 percent

According to Morningstar’s The State of Retirement Income: 2025, a new retiree seeking a stable, inflation-adjusted income over a 30-year retirement could start with a withdrawal rate of about 3.9 percent. The estimate assumed the retiree’s portfolio was invested 30 to 50 percent in stocks with the rest in bonds and/or cash.

“Because a 3.9 [percent] withdrawal rate—or just $39,000 on a $1 million portfolio—might be a bitter pill to swallow for new retirees, we also examined how flexible strategies can help boost starting safe withdrawal rates. Flexible strategies are effective because they help to prevent retirees from overspending in periods of market weakness, while giving them a raise in stronger market environments,” reported Amy C. Arnott, Christine Benz, and Jason Kephart of Morningstar.

The researchers found that retirees who are willing to make modest spending adjustments over time may be able to support higher withdrawal rates. Some spending strategies supported initial withdrawal rates approaching 5.7 percent. However, the strategies generally required retirees to accept the possibility of variable income in each year of retirement.

Retirement income is not a simple math problem

Your retirement income strategy will reflect your lifestyle and legacy goals, as well as other factors. One retiree may prefer a stable income and choose a more conservative initial withdrawal rate, while another may be comfortable with variable income and choose to make systematic adjustments to spending. Retirement planning often involves tradeoffs.

If you would like to talk about your plan or discuss retirement income strategies, get in touch. We’re here for you.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Chinese farm owner Zuo Xiaoyong was stunned to see his job ad for shepherds to work in the remote and rugged grasslands south of Mongolia becoming the day’s top trending social media post. More than 700 people applied for the two positions, ‌including white-collar employees from megacities Shanghai and Chongqing, factory workers across China, and even university graduates…the shepherds would each get 8,000 yuan ($1,178) per month, well above the national urban average in private companies of roughly 6,000 yuan, and have accommodation and groceries provided.”

― Liangping Gao and Marius Zaharia, Reuters via Yahoo!, May 27, 2026

Warm regards,

Daniel J. Murphy, CFP®
Murphy Wealth Management Group
60 Merritt Blvd., Suite 106
Fishkill, NY 12524

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